Does RSI work for crypto trading? What 704 tests showed
RSI under 30 means buy, RSI over 70 means sell. It is the first rule most traders learn. We tested it, along with MACD, moving average crosses, Supertrend, Ichimoku and the popular social media setups, on 12 coins over a full year with real fees.
What we tested
43 rules on 15 minute, 1 hour and 4 hour charts, each held for three different lengths of time, on 12 major coins from October 2025 to September 2026. That includes RSI under 30, RSI under 30 above the 200 EMA, Connors RSI2, MACD cross below zero, Bollinger plus RSI, golden cross, Supertrend, Parabolic SAR, Ichimoku and turtle breakouts. Spot trades paid 0.2% round trip in fees.
What happened
- Most setups lost after fees. Only 40 of 704 beat doing nothing in both halves of the year, and with that many rules tried, a handful pass by luck alone.
- The strict test left one survivor, a 4 hour stochastic cross, and it lost money in the second half.
- Trend signals on short charts lost. MACD, EMA crosses, Supertrend, SAR and breakouts all lost after fees on 15 minute to 4 hour charts in this period.
- RSI oversold on its own had no edge. Only very deep oversold buys (RSI under 25 and price under the lower band) held about 3 days showed a small average gain of 0.4% to 1.0% a trade. Added to a real bot, it made results worse.
Other researchers found the same. A study of 7,846 technical rules on 12 cryptocurrencies found almost nothing survives once you account for how many rules were tried.
So is RSI useless?
RSI describes what price has done. It can help you read a chart, but on its own it does not tell you what happens next often enough to pay trading fees. Treat a signal from it as context, not as a reason to trade.
What held up instead
The approaches that passed our tests were slow and spread over many positions. See them, with their bad years, on our strategy results page.
Questions
Does RSI work for crypto?
Not on its own in our tests. RSI under 30 and similar oversold rules had no edge after fees on 15 minute to 4 hour charts from October 2025 to September 2026.
What is the best indicator for crypto?
In our test of 704 indicator setups, none held up after fees and a strict check for luck. Indicators describe the past; they do not reliably predict the next move.
Does MACD work for crypto trading?
MACD and other trend signals lost money after fees on 15 minute to 4 hour charts in our test year.
Can I still use indicators?
Yes, as context for reading a chart. Do not treat one as a reason to trade on its own. Trading carries risk.
See every test we ran
Grid bots, RSI, scalping and more, with the few approaches that held up. Then try Treo with 10,000 practice USDT, no sign up.
See the strategy results Try the demo